IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sce/scecfa/49.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil crisis, Energy Saving Technological Change, and the Stock Market Collapse of 1974

Author

Listed:
  • Adrian Peralta-Alva

    (Department of Economics University of Miami)

  • Sami Alpanda

    (Amherst College)

Abstract

The market value of U.S. corporations was nearly halved following the oil crisis of October 1973. Real energy prices more than doubled by the end of the decade, increasing energy costs and spurring innovation in energy-saving technologies by corporations. This paper uses a neoclassical growth model to quantify the impact of the increase in energy prices on the market value of U.S. corporations. In the model, corporations adopt energy-saving technologies as a response to the energy price shock and the price of installed capital falls due to investment irreversibility. The model calibrated to match the subsequent decline in energy consumption in the U.S. generates a 24% decline in market valuation; accounting for nearly half of what is observed in the data

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Peralta-Alva & Sami Alpanda, 2006. "Oil crisis, Energy Saving Technological Change, and the Stock Market Collapse of 1974," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 49, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://moya.bus.miami.edu/~aperalta/research/energy.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://repec.org/sce2006/up.4379.1138374944.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1185-1202, December.
    2. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
    3. Martin Neil Baily, 1981. "Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 1-66.
    4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 767-796.
    5. Patrick J. Kehoe & Andrew Atkeson, 1999. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1028-1043, September.
    6. Young, Alwyn, 1993. "Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 443-472, June.
    7. William A. Brock & Leonard J. Mirman, 2001. "Optimal Economic Growth And Uncertainty: The Discounted Case," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 1, pages 3-37, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
    9. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January.
    10. Stephen L. Parente, 2000. "Learning-by-Using and the Switch to Better Machines," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 675-703, October.
    11. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-583, August.
    12. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    13. John Laitner & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2003. "Technological Change and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1240-1267, September.
    14. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    15. David Popp, 2002. "Induced Innovation and Energy Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 160-180, March.
    16. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mark E Doms, 1993. "Energy Intensity, Electricity Consumption, and Advanced Manufacturing Technology Usage," Working Papers 93-9, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    19. Chao Wei, 2003. "Energy, the Stock Market, and the Putty-Clay Investment Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 311-323, March.
    20. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "Struggling to Understand the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 1-11, May.
    21. Arrow, Kenneth J & Kurz, Mordecai, 1970. "Optimal Growth with Irreversible Investment in a Ramsey Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 331-344, March.
    22. Olson, Lars J., 1989. "Stochastic growth with irreversible investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 101-129, February.
    23. Peter Klenow, 1998. "Learning Curves and the Cyclical Behavior of Manufacturing Industries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 531-550, April.
    24. Boyan Jovanovic & Yaw Nyarko, 1995. "A Bayesian Learning Model Fitted to a Variety of Empirical Learning Curves," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995 Micr), pages 247-305.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sami Alpanda & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2010. "Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 824-842, October.
    2. Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2007. "THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION AND THE PUZZLING TRENDS IN TOBIN'S AVERAGE "q"," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(3), pages 929-951, August.
    3. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 767-796.
    5. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rousseau, Peter L., 2005. "General Purpose Technologies," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1181-1224, Elsevier.
    6. Gourio, François, 2011. "Putty-clay technology and stock market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 117-131, March.
    7. Jonathan Temple, 2002. "The Assessment: The New Economy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 241-264.
    8. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2005. "I - Q Cycles," Working Paper 1040, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    9. Mateos-Planas, Xavier, 2000. "Schooling and distortions in a vintage capital model," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0030, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    10. Mateos-Planas, Xavier, 2000. "Technology adoption with finite horizons," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0033, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. Christophe Boucher, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation : the Role of the Macroeconomic Risk Premium," Finance 0305011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mateos-Planas, Xavier, 2004. "Technology adoption with finite horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2129-2154, October.
    13. Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2006. "Rosenberg's "learning by using" and technology diffusion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 123-144, September.
    14. Faria, Andre L., 2008. "Mergers and the market for organization capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 71-100, January.
    15. Thompson, Peter, 2010. "Learning by Doing," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 429-476, Elsevier.
    16. Ahn, Sanghoon, 2003. "Technology Upgrading with Learning Cost," CEI Working Paper Series 2003-21, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2006. "Returns to equity, investment and Q: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 310, Bank of England.
    19. Luigi Bocola & Nils M. Gornemann, 2013. "Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations," Working Papers 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Mateos-Planas, Xavier, 2000. "Technology adoption with finite horizons," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 33, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Energy Prices; Tobin's q;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sceeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.