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The Optimality of the US and Euro Area Taylor Rule

Author

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  • Ferhat MIHOUBI
  • Pascal JACQUINOT

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the optimality of the monetary authorities reaction function in the two-area medium size model MARCOS (US and euro areas). The parameters and the horizons of output gap and inflation expectations of the Taylor rule are computed in order to minimise a loss function of the monetary authorities. However, investigating the optimality of the Taylor rule in the context of a large scale macroeconomic model raises several difficulties: the model is non-linear and all the state variables potentially enter the optimal monetary policy rule. Furthermore, the optimality of the Taylor rule is assessed by the minimisation of the loss function under the constraint of a large forward-looking model. To overcome these problems, Black, Macklem and Rose [1998] propose a stochastic simulation based method which has been applied to single-country macroeconomic models. To study the optimality of the Taylor rule in the case of a two-area model, we suppose that the economy is stochastically hit by numerous shocks (supply, demand, monetary, exchange rate and world demand) in each area and simulate MARCOS stochastically.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferhat MIHOUBI & Pascal JACQUINOT, 2004. "The Optimality of the US and Euro Area Taylor Rule," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 220, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:220
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    File URL: http://repec.org/sce2004/up.31791.1077901172.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacquinot, P. & Mihoubi, F., 2003. "L’apport des modèles de la nouvelle génération à l’analyse économique, l’exemple de MARCOS," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 117, pages 63-84.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Computational Techniques; International Policy Transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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