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Spectral Analysis as a Tool for Financial Policy: An Analysis of the Short-End of the British Term Structure

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  • Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter

Abstract

In this paper, we show how to derive the spectra and cross-spectra of economic times series from an underlying econometric or VAR model. This allows us to conduct a proper frequency analysis of economic and financial variables on a reduced sample of data, without it being ruled out by large sample requirements of direct spectral estimation. We show, in particular, how this can be done for time-varying models and time-varying spectra. We apply our techniques to the behaviour of British interest rates during and following the ERM crisis of 1992/3.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter, 2001. "Spectral Analysis as a Tool for Financial Policy: An Analysis of the Short-End of the British Term Structure," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 127, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:127
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    Cited by:

    1. Crowley, Patrick M., 2010. "Long cycles in growth : explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data," Research Discussion Papers 6/2010, Bank of Finland.
    2. Mario Cunha, 2010. "Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach," Working Papers 2010.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Crowley, Patrick M., 2010. "Long cycles in growth: explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2010, Bank of Finland.
    4. Christian Richter & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 45, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Crowley, Patrick M., 2005. "An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2005, Bank of Finland.
    6. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2010. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables: a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1054-1070.
    7. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Richter, Christian, 2011. "Trans-Pacific Economic Relations and US-China Business Cycles: Convergence within Asia versus US Economic Leadership," ADBI Working Papers 292, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    9. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
    10. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Is the convergence of business cycles a global or regional issue? The UK, US and Euroland," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 177-194.
    11. Crowley, Patrick M. & Maraun, Douglas & Mayes, David, 2006. "How hard is the euro area core? : an evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis," Research Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland.
    12. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    13. Crowley, Patrick M. & Maraun, Douglas & Mayes, David, 2006. "How hard is the euro area core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland.
    14. Maria do Rosario CORREIA & Christian GOKUS & Andrew Hughes HALLETT & Christian R. RICHTER, 2016. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Determinants of the Greek Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 350-376, June.
    15. Bachar Fakhry & Christian Richter, 2015. "Is the sovereign debt market efficient? Evidence from the US and German sovereign debt markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 339-357, September.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
    18. David Gray, 2014. "Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 550-567, June.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00333582 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2011. "Synchronization of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysis," CEF.UP Working Papers 1105, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    22. Patrick Crowley, 2005. "An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists," Econometrics 0503017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_018 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rates; Time Dependent Spectral Analysis; Behavioural Finance; Learning; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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