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Long-Run Trend, Business Cycles and Short-Run Shocks in Real GDP

Author

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  • Muhammad Farooq Arby

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Farooq Arby, 2001. "Long-Run Trend, Business Cycles and Short-Run Shocks in Real GDP," SBP Working Paper Series 01, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:01
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    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/repec/sbp/wpaper/wp01.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Munawar Hussain & Raja Muhammad Ahsan Ilyas & Muhammad Asif Khan, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis for the determinants of investment appraisal," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 15(148), pages 686-686.
    2. Abdullah Muhammad Iqbal & Iram Khan & Zeeshan Ahmed, 2015. "Earnings Management and Privatisations: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 79-96.
    3. Muhammad Umar Draz Author_Email: umardraz2626@yahoo.com, 2011. "Impact Of Financial Crises On Pakistan And China: A Comparative Study Of Six Decades," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-529, Conference Master Resources.
    4. Malik, M. Fahad & Awan, Dr Masood Sarwar & Malik, Dr Waseem Shahid, 2020. "Macroeconomic Shocks: Short-Run versus Long-Run Perspectives," MPRA Paper 99103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zobia BHATTI & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Cost of Low Inflation in Case of Pakistan," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 257-268, June.
    6. Muhammad Umar Draz, 2011. "Impact Of Financial Crises On Pakistan And China: A Comparative Study Of Six Decades," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 3(1), pages 174-186, July.
    7. Lawrence Ogbeifun & Olatunji Shobande, 2020. "Debt sustainability and the fiscal reaction function: evidence from MIST countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; GDP;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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