Ambiente, salute e sviluppo: un approccio dinamico

The paper addresses the issue of dynamic relationships between environment, health and growth. Its aim is to show that the dynamic of the three variables is very difficult to predict, and depends on the value of key parameters: nonetheless the paper tries to show that there is probably, at least in the long run, a cyclical relationship among the three variables. The hypothesis is that the state of the natural environment at first affects negatively health; later on its improvement, due to sanitation and health infrastructures, possible because of income growth, leads to a better health, followed, when pollution, generated by a growth too fast, becomes widespread by a worsening of health conditions, coming finally to pollution containment measures and to a new health improvement. The paper shows also that there is probably a complementarity between environment improvements and health care measures, as the first reduces resources for health care in the short run but foster health in the long run, while the second, stimulating productivity and growth makes more resources available for environment : the two strategies are then to be carefully blended so as to lead to a more stable and accelerated growth.