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Uncertainty and the Pandemic Shocks

Author

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  • Pierpaolo Benigno
  • Paolo Canofari
  • Giovanni Di Bartolomeo
  • Marcello Messori

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic shocks are an important source of uncertainty on several dimensions. These shocks influence the landscape, in which policymakers operates, and create further uncertainty on policy decisions and on their effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to offer some relative measures of the pandemic uncertainty, and to discuss the impact of this uncertainty on the possible evolution of European economies during the second wave of Covid-19. The emphasis is on the effectiveness of the policies implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "Uncertainty and the Pandemic Shocks," Working Papers in Public Economics 202, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
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    4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    5. Garcia-de-Andoain, Carlos & Kremer, Manfred, 2017. "Beyond spreads: Measuring sovereign market stress in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 153-156.
    6. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    8. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    10. Jean-Jacques Laffont, 1989. "The Economics of Uncertainty and Information," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121360, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shobod Deba Nath & Kazi Md. Jamshed & Javed M. Shaikh, 2022. "The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on subsistence consumers' well‐being and coping strategies: Insights from India and Bangladesh," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 180-210, March.
    2. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2022. "The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 657-675, September.
    4. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.
    5. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "The ECB's policy measures during the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers in Public Economics 207, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid19; Central banking; Recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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