Value-based analysis of drug policy impact on the strategic development goals of the Russian Federation[Ценностно-Ориентированный Анализ Влияния Политики В Области Лекарственного Обеспечения На Достижение Основных Целей Развития Российской Федерации]

Relevance. In recent years, several projects have been proposed to expand the state guarantees for the provision of drugs to patients with specific diseases. However, none of them have been fully implemented. The inconsistency in expanding medicinal guarantees might be linked to the lack of unified approaches to justify the need for additional drug supply. Objective. Development of a methodology for assessing the reserves for achieving the main health development goals of the Russian Federation by expanding drug provision to patients with priority disease groups. Novelty. Development of an original econometric model based on real-world evidence. Methods. Regression analysis of mortality using «fixed» and «between» effects models. The dependent variable was the standardized mortality rate for specific causes. Independent variables included drug coverage of target study population and factors representing external influences (such as the availability of primary healthcare resources, socio-economic population characteristics, and environmental quality). Results. For immuno-oncological drugs, a 1 percentage point increase in drug coverage is associated with a 0.4% reduction in the standardized cancer mortality rate. If drug coverage expands to 100%, a projected decrease in mortality by 9,005 individuals is expected. Conclusions. Model validation using immuno-oncological therapy as an example confirmed the possibility of measuring the potential beneficial effect of expanding drug provision based on real-world data.