Dynamics of socio-economic development of russian regions under sanctions in 2022[Динамика Социально-Экономического Развития Регионов России В Условиях Санкций В 2022 Году]

In 2023 the termination of the positive factors that ensured stability of regional budgets in 2022 is noted: the financial reserves accumulated by the subjects of the Russian Federation in the surplus year 2021 are being depleted; the dynamics of oil and gas revenues after the surge in prices for petroleum products in 2022 is stabilizing, while the list of sanctions imposed by unfriendly countries against the Russian Federation continues to expand. Against the background of changes in the procedure for paying taxes and crediting them to budgets as a result of the introduction of a single tax account (ENS) and a single tax payment (ENP) from January 1, 2023, serious threats to the stability of regional budgets in the future of 2023 are being formed. It seems relevant to assess short-term changes in the state of regional budgets in 2023, which was the purpose of the part of the study presented in the framework of the preprint. Two tasks were set in the framework of the study: to develop a methodology for the operational assessment of the dynamics of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation, taking into account the introduction of the ENS and changes in the procedure and timing of crediting tax revenues to regional budgets in 2023, as well as to assess changes in the situation with the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation for 9 months of 2023 on the basis of the developed methodology. The assessment was based on the data of the Federal Treasury of Russia and the State Integrated Information System «Electronic Budget». Statistical and quantitative comparative analysis were used as two main methods. For developing a methodology for the operational assessment of the dynamics of the execution of consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2023, the methodological results of authors’ previous research«Monitoring of short-term changes in the regional development of Russia», lead in 2022, were used. As a result of the study, it was found that the state of the consolidated budgets of most subjects of the Russian Federation remains stable in 2023. Government's measures to adjust the operation of the ENS and the ENP regime made it possible to overcome the problem of large cash gaps that occurred in the first half of 2023. The growth of tax and non-tax revenues, largely provided by the positive dynamics of income tax receipts (largely generated by defense industry enterprises), allows most regions to maintain the overall positive dynamics of budget revenues even with a reduction in transfers from the federal budgetю The worse budgetary situation is observed in the territories specializing in coal and gas extraction, affected by the sanctions of unfriendly countries at a greater extent, however, significant risks of reducing consolidated budget revenues can be noticed only in four subjects of the Russian Federation. It was also revealed that while in the first half of the year the expenditures of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation grew due to an increase in spending on the national economy, in the second half of the year the increase in expenditures is being formed by growth of expenses on the social policy. Despite the outstripping growth of budget expenditures over revenues, most regions still manage to form a significant surplus, which in 2/3 of the country's regions allows to overcome the possible occurrence of cash gaps at the end of the year due to technical difficulties with crediting tax payments to the ENS. The conclusions are provided to the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation for use in conducting expert and analytical activities. They may also be used in the interests of authorities (the Department of Economic Development and Finance of the Government of the Russian Federation; the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Federal Financial Monitoring Service, etc.) in order to develop measures to support the regional budgetary system in 2023 and the forecast period, and in the interests of the Academy for the development of scientific potential in order to improve the quality of expert-analytical work, educational programs and mid-term expertise of public administration of regional finance.