Methodological approaches to the assessment and institutional conditions of the debt sustainability of the state[Методологические Подходы К Оценке И Институциональные Условия Долговой Устойчивости Государства]

The relevance of the study is that due to the fact that a possible reduction in tax revenues and an increase in government spending to support the population in a crisis caused by the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and new sanctions Russia will require additional funds, one of the sources of financing of which is the public debt. The subject of the study is the debt sustainability of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the debt sustainability of the Russian Federation, taking into account institutional conditions and foreign economic conditions. When forming the work, such methods as reasoned-critical analysis, hypothetical-deductive method, case methods, method of analysis of generalizations and extrapolation (interpolation) of results were used. The study used data from the Federal Treasury, Rosstat and the Ministry of Finance of Russia. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the use of the Granger test and the Housman test. The result of the work was a report containing: • the concept of "debt sustainability of the state"; • based on the review of Russian and foreign scientific literature, the characteristics of the institutional environment that determine the conditions and results of the policy on public debt were determined; • analysis of international practice, as well as the experience of the Russian Federation in determining approaches to assessing the debt sustainability of the state, taking into account the selected characteristics of the institutional environment; • quantitative assessments of the sustainability of public debt, taking into account institutional conditions; • proposals to adjust the budget rule taking into account the institutional conditions that ensure a certain level of debt sustainability. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the state should remain focused on the development of the domestic debt market, which will be accompanied by an increase in the number of participants, a reduction in transaction costs, a decrease in the cost of borrowing and an increase in its liquidity. In parallel with the increase in the volume of debt, the debt portfolio should be diversified as much as possible by financial instruments and parameters for attracting financing: the higher the level of public debt, the higher the degree of differentiation of obligations should be. Long- term OFZs should have a predominant share in the structure of the state debt. Absolute priority in the medium and long term should be given to government bonds with fixed yields, since this minimizes the risks of influencing the budget. In the future, it is desirable to consider the possibility of repurchase by the state of its obligations at the expense of liquid reserves of the NWF and funds from privatization. In the future, the authors plan to continue the study of the characteristics of debt sustainability in Russia and in the world.