The search for sustainable practices in cultivation of agricultural land taking in account economic benefits and environmental costs[Выбор Практик Устойчивого Развития Земледелия С Учетом Экономических Выгод И Экологических Издержек]

The relevance of the study is related to the need to determine quantitative characteristics of sustainable and unsustainable agricultural land cultivation practices of the modern era in Russian regions. The goal of the study is to develop pathways for the sustainable development of Russian agriculture, by increasing the intensification and productivity of crop production, as well as the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and the carbon footprint of produced raw crops. The subjects of the study are the indicators of production quantities, crop yields and sown areas of the main crops cultivated in Russia, as well as the balance of carbon stocks in arable land and the assessment of emissions of associated greenhouse gases. During the work, methods of statistical analysis and methods of economic and mathematical modeling were used. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official regulations and statistical data from the Russian Government. The results of the study showed that in the period 2011-2019 the growth in crop production was accompanied by a reduction in the carbon footprint per unit of production (in grain equivalent). However, in a regional context, the picture looks different. The western and southwestern regions of Russia generally have a low carbon footprint, incl. negative carbon footprint, which is a sign of respective carbon sequestration during land cultivation. But in many steppe regions, as well as in the regions of the Far East of Russia, low yields and plowing of abandoned lands have led to an increase in the carbon footprint. Using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model, quantitative estimates are given of the possible extensive and intensive development of crop production in Russian regions until 2030, where it is shown that the lowest (and negative, i.e. with the possibility of carbon sequestration) can remain both in some regions of the Upper Volga region and in Siberian regions. In addition, in some areas of the Central Black Earth region, a carbon footprint with a minus sign is also possible, since here cultivation practices are accompanied not only by the plowing of abandoned land, but also by a significant intensification of arable land. Thus, the scientific novelty of the work lies in the revealing main characteristics and modeling of sustainable development practices, as a set of indicators of crop production, which makes it possible to increase production per unit area, usually due to increased productivity, which ensures a greater intake of carbon into the soils of cultivated lands, thereby reducing carbon footprint. On the contrary, the characteristics of unsustainable practices are significant plowing of abandoned land without proper increase in yield, which does not allow the accumulation of crop residues necessary for carbon balance, and, as a result, leads to an increase and a “positive” carbon footprint. Recommendations for the Russian Government are presented for 11 separate regions of Russia regarding the need to harmonize state regional programs for agricultural development and the possibility of increasing yields in order to maintain land fertility and reduce the carbon footprint.