Modelling Scenarios Of Sustainable Development Of The Livestock Sector[Cценарное Моделирование Развития Животноводства С Учетом Целей Устойчивого Развития]

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to analyze the consequences of the concentration of livestock farms, not only from an economic point of view, but also from an environmental one. The objective of the research is to develop ways for sustainable development of animal husbandry in Russia, taking into account the possibilities of continuous growth in production and export of meat and milk, balanced by current environmental problems (growth of farm waste) and the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The subject of the research is the environmental indicators characterizing the externalities arising from the production of livestock products (meat, milk, eggs). The work uses traditional scientific methods - descriptive, analytical, statistical and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The sources of information were Russian and foreign scientific publications, official publications of regulatory documents and statistical data of state authorities of Russia, as well as foreign databases on agricultural statistics. The reported results conclude that the concentration of livestock production facilities leads to different environmental consequences. Among the leading regions specializing in livestock products, the highest concentration is in the Central Black Earth Region: the Belgorod and Kursk regions account for almost 30% of all agricultural waste in Russia. The greenhouse gas emissions were estimated using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model. The calculation results showed that Belgorod region has one of the lowest carbon footprint indicators in livestock production: 8 tons of СО2 equiv. per one ton of protein, which is associated with the low-carbon development of poultry farming. In other regions, which specialize in dairy and beef cattle breeding, the carbon footprint is at least twice as high, for example, in the Krasnodarsky krai; however, the indicators of waste output per unit of production, on the contrary, are lower there. Thus, the scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of scientific and analytical tools for the correct identification of local, regional and global environmental risks when assessing the efficiency of meat, milk and eggs production. So, in our study, local risks were assessed through the concentration of manure (nitrogen) elements per unit of agricultural land and cultivated area at the level of municipalities. Regional risks were assessed through the indicator of waste from agricultural products. And global risks were assessed through an indicator of greenhouse gas emissions, which also allowed us to estimate the so-called cumulative carbon footprint of each region per unit of animal protein produced. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were developed to improve statistical reporting on production waste in the agricultural sector; to differentially collect and publish data on various types of feeding of farm animals in different categories of farms, which will subsequently help to better calculate animal diets and their potential waste and greenhouse gas emissions, in order to identify the most "wasteful” and “sustainable” animal husbandry practices.