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Modeling And Forecasting Of Wholesale Market Indicators Electricity In Russia Using Combination Methods Data Of Different Frequencies
[Моделирование И Прогнозирование Показателей Оптового Рынка Электроэнергии России С Использованием Методов Совмещения Данных Разной Частотности]

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  • Kaukin, Andrey (Каукин, Андрей)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Kasyanova, Ksenia (Касьянова, Ксения)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Kosarev, Vladimir (Косарев, Владимир)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop new methods for forecasting time series with data of different frequencies among exogenous factors; forecasting the indicators of the wholesale electricity market in Russia using methods of combining data of different frequencies, including those based on algorithms of convolutional neural networks. The structure of the work is presented in four sections. The first section analyzes methods for forecasting time series with combining data of different frequencies. The second section presents the architecture of a convolutional network that allows the use of data of different frequencies. The third section presents a price model for the wholesale electricity market using data from the Atlas of Russian Energy. The fourth section presents recommendations and main conclusions of the work.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaukin, Andrey (Каукин, Андрей) & Kasyanova, Ksenia (Касьянова, Ксения) & Kosarev, Vladimir (Косарев, Владимир), 2021. "Modeling And Forecasting Of Wholesale Market Indicators Electricity In Russia Using Combination Methods Data Of Different Frequencies [Моделирование И Прогнозирование Показателей Оптового Рынка Эле," Working Papers w20220135, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220135
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    Keywords

    electricity demand; wholesale electricity market; generation capacity; day-ahead market; price modeling; multi-frequency data; convolutional neural networks;
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