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Public sector external debt sustainability in the face of uncertainty
[Устойчивость Внешнего Долга Государственного Сектора В Условиях Неопределённости]

Author

Listed:
  • Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Suchkova, Olga (Сучкова, Ольга)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Khuzina, Alfiya (Хузина, Альфия)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Komarnitskaya, Anna (Комарницкая, Анна)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Matveev, Evgeniy (Матвеев, Евгений)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Moguchev, Nikita S. (Могучев, Никита С.)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

This report presents the main results of the research on the Methodological approaches to assessing the sustainability of public sector external debt. The paper provides an overview of definitions and empirical approaches to assessing the sustainability of a country's external debt, and analyzes current trends in the dynamics of the debt burden of developed and emerging countries as well. Using a probabilistic approach to the external debt sustainability index, an assessment was made of the probability of solvency of the Russian Federation in terms of external debt, taking into account the specific shocks for the oil-exporting country. Using a binary tree model in a sample of developing countries, we identified the that increase the likelihood of default. Despite maintaining a low level of Russia's external public debt, further loans may be undesirable.

Suggested Citation

  • Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья) & Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей) & Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна) & Suchkova, Olga (Сучкова, Ольга) & Khuzina, Alfiya (Хузина, Альфия) & Komarnitskaya, Anna (Комарн, 2020. "Public sector external debt sustainability in the face of uncertainty [Устойчивость Внешнего Долга Государственного Сектора В Условиях Неопределённости]," Working Papers 052028, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052028
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