Escalation of trade conflicts and their impact on international trade in goods[Эскалация Торговых Конфликтов И Их Воздействие На Международную Торговлю Товарами]

In this paper, the authors investigate the factors behind the emergence and escalation of trade conflicts since 2017. Both direct and indirect effects of the growth of protectionist measures caused by so-called "trade wars" are considered. The authors pay special attention to the problem of growing economic uncertainty associated, among other things, with a surge in protectionist sentiment. The authors provide a number of examples when rising economic uncertainty could, among other factors, influence companies' decision to move production from China. In an attempt to establish a causal relationship between economic uncertainty and international commodity flows, the gravity equation approach was used, with economic uncertainty introduced as one of the most interesting variables.