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Analysis of the demographic heterogeneity of the regions of Russia
[Анализ Демографической Неоднородности Регионов России]

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  • Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

In this paper, a multi-region demographic forecast of Russia until 2050 is built and analyzed. In the baseline scenario in 2050, the population of Russia is 145,970 thousand (a decrease of 0.2% from the 2018 level of 146,880 thousand). In the scenario with zero migration in 2050, the population is 139,714 thousand (a decrease of 4.9%). For Russia, the indicator of human life is estimated at 67.7 years in 2017 (61st place in the world). The paper estimates the threshold of old age in Russia for women was 69 years and 62.6 years for men. The median age increases from 39.2 years in 2018 to 46.4 years in 2050, while the promising (taking into account increased life expectancy) median age in 2050 is 34.7 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей) & Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей), 2019. "Analysis of the demographic heterogeneity of the regions of Russia [Анализ Демографической Неоднородности Регионов России]," Working Papers 031948, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031948
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    Keywords

    demography; demographic projection; indicator of human life; life expectancy; old age threshold; gender and age structure of the population; regional differentiation;
    All these keywords.

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