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Modelando el Gas Entregado en Argentina: ¿Cuál es el Mejor Predictor?

Author

Listed:
  • Canay, Iván

    (Universidad Argntina de la Empresa)

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se utilizan tres modelos alternativos para pronosticar las series de gas entregado a los usuarios residenciales y al total de usuarios en Argentina. Los resultados muestran que los modelos de series de tiempo son más adecuados para este fin que los modelos clásicos, no sólo por no necesitar predecir los valores de las variables exógenas, sino porque las evaluaciones del pronóstico los favorecen. Pese a que la mayoría de los modelos presenta persistentemente una subestimación en el período invernal, los errores para el volumen entregado anualmente no superan el 1%.

Suggested Citation

  • Canay, Iván, 2002. "Modelando el Gas Entregado en Argentina: ¿Cuál es el Mejor Predictor?," UADE Textos de Discusión 40_2002, Instituto de Economía, Universidad Argentina de la Empresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:uadetd:2002_040
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    series de gas entregado; Modelo de gas entregado;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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