Impactos do Crescimento de Vagas em Cursos Universitários sobre a Migração de Estudantes: Uma Análise Preliminar com o Censo Demográfico de 2010

This paper advances in the literatures of college student migration evaluating in to what extent does the uprising in the offer of graduate courses in a certain municipality affect the migratory net balance (over the municipality young population). The recent significant evolution of the offer of places in graduate courses in Brazil may provide a new instrument of regional development. In this sense, if this process happens in less favored municipalities, there will be a new element of attraction of students that will be qualified and may stay there afterwards. Considering Demographic Census (1991, 2000 and 2010) and Graduate Courses Census (1998 and 2007), indicators of attraction and repulsion of families are constructed for Brazilian municipalities. Therefore, migration decision may be taken by the youngster (if he migrates alone) or by his family (in the pursuit of job opportunities and higher quality of life). As the analysis is done over time for municipalities, Minimum Comparable Areas (2000-2010) are built and the spatial dependence of the residuals in the regressions is taken into account by spatial econometrics models. The main results show that there is a positive impact of the offer of places in Graduate courses, of the population and of life quality measures (life expectancy and infant mortality rate) over the net migration index.