Structural Changes in Korea-China Trade and Policy Implications

Korea and China established formal relations 30 years ago. Vibrant bilateral trade has significantly contributed to the economic growth of both nations. However, a remarkable turning point has occurred recently: Bilateral trade seemed to balance out due to China’s lockdown policy and Korea’s stronger corporate competitiveness, but Korea has posted a trade deficit with China since last year for all goods except semiconductors. Such a deficit could signal the beginning of structural change, though the figure over the last four months might be a temporary phenomenon. Over the last 30 years, high-tech industries have played an increasingly important role in bilateral trade in both exports and imports. In exports, semiconductors, petrochemicals, and displays have leading positions but in imports, Korean manufacturing is highly dependent on China, which is expanding into other industries. That means Korea is increasingly reliant on components or raw materials from China, leading to greater risk factors. To effectively respond to the short-term deficit and mid- to long-term structural changes in trade with China, Korea must diversify its import partners, even if doing so is likely to incur high costs in the short term. In the mid-term, the country should develop overseas resources and change its strategic approach to the global market, which should be framed as economic blocs, rather than as a single entity. Over the long term, Korea must strengthen its industrial competitiveness and foster high-tech human resources to secure key technologies to maintain its comparative advantage over China. For the first time in its modern trade with China, Korea recorded a trade deficit for four consecutive months, representing reversal major reversal of roles: Korea had in the past recorded enormous trade surpluses in the tens of billions of USD. Thus looking at the trade deficit with China provides an opportunity to consider changes in the bilateral trade balance, the reasons for these changes, and potential responses to them.