Understanding the EU Enlargement Process: Potential Changes and Implications

The “big bang” enlargement of the European Union (EU) marked its 20th anniversary in May 2024. Over the past two decades, the European Union has experienced notable shifts in membership, highlighting its continuous evolution. Candidate countries are motivated to pursue EU membership for several reasons despite the demanding conditions associated with the accession process. Countries seeking membership must meet the accession criteria, which require them to demonstrate democratic governance, protect the rule of law and human rights, and ensure the respect and protection of minorities. In addition, they must have a well-functioning market economy, sufficient economic capacity to withstand competition within the European single market, and the administrative capacity to implement the EU’s acquis, standards, and regulations. So far, candidate countries have utilized this challenging and lengthy accession process as an opportunity to reform their economic and political systems. Even though it seems highly unlikely that the EU enlargement will occur in the near future, the geopolitical and national security aspects of the EU enlargement process are becoming increasingly prominent. The recent escalation of geopolitical tension and the rise of industrial policies are creating greater incentives for local production. This calls for enhanced economic cooperation with existing intra-EU production in sectors such as automotive components, semiconductors, and batteries. Previous accession countries in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Poland and Hungary, have become production hubs within the EU, and South Korea has been actively investing in and cooperating with these countries. In addition, South Korea should prepare for the EU enlargement by starting to build mutually beneficial relationships with the accession candidates. It is advisable for the South Korean government to approach economic cooperation with the region as a whole rather than individual countries while keeping a longer timeline in mind as the EU enlargement progresses.