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¿Existe Espacio para Políticas Anti-Shocks en Bolivia? Lecciones de un Análisis basado en un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable

Author

Listed:
  • Jemio, Luis Carlos

    (Corporación Andina de Fomento CAF)

  • Wiebelt, Manfred

    (Kiel Institute for World Economics)

Abstract

Las perspectivas de crecimiento de mediano plazo de Bolivia son prometedoras, pero estas podrían perderse, debido al descontento social y la inestabilidad política, si el país no resuelve sus problemas económicos de corto plazo, resultantes tanto de shocks externos como de factores internos. Considerando este panorama, el documento analiza las posibilidades de la economía Boliviana de aplicar políticas anti-shock a fin de mitigar los efectos de corto plazo de los shocks. Para este propósito se describe un modelo de equilibrio general computable (MEGC) recursivodinámico que incluye a los sectores real y financiero y que captura los aspectos particulares que caracterizan el funcionamiento de la economía Boliviana. El modelo es usado para evaluar los efectos de shocks externos y para probar la efectividad de diferentes políticas.

Suggested Citation

  • Jemio, Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "¿Existe Espacio para Políticas Anti-Shocks en Bolivia? Lecciones de un Análisis basado en un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable," Documentos de trabajo 1/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2003_001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brenda Guevara & Gabriel Rodríguez & Lorena Yamuca Salvatierra, 2024. "External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-529, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    2. Tellería, Roberto & Fernández, Soraya & Ludeña, Carlos, 2011. "Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences," Documentos de Proyectos 3922, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Lykke E. Andersen & José Luis Evia, 2003. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Aid in Bolivia," Development Research Working Paper Series 01/2003, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    4. Shibasaki, Ryuichi & Ma, Liqiang & Kadono, Takashi & Ishikura, Tomoki & Ieda, Hitoshi, 2005. "An Estimation of International Maritime Container Volume Among Asian Countries by GTAP Model and Simulation on FTA And Transport Improvement Scenario," Conference papers 331384, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Nunnenkamp, Peter & Schweickert, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2006. "Distributional effects of FDI: How the interaction of FDI and economic policy affects poor households in Bolivia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 35, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    6. Wiebelt, Manfred, 2004. "GEM-PIA: A real-financial general equilibrium model for poverty impact analysis technical description," Kiel Working Papers 1230, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Lay, Jann & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2004. "Pro-poor growth in Bolivia: accounting for external shocks and policy reforms," Kiel Working Papers 1231, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evolución económica; sector financiero; expansión fiscal; Políticas anti-shock; Bolivia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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