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Impacts of an Ice-Free Northeast Passage on LNG Trading: Transport Routes and Optimal Capacity Planning

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Abstract

We analyze the significance of an ice-free Northeast Passage (NEP) as a shipping route for LNG, and the impacts on alternative transport routes and -capacities. The following aspects are considered: (1) Trends in LNG production, particularly in the Russian Arctic; (2) Developments in the Asian LNG consumer market; (3) Specifics and prospects of Arctic shipping. The major LNG trade flows between producers and the Asian consumer market are modeled. Methods from Operations Research are contrasted and the Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm applied to the transportation problem, in order to achieve a cost-optimal capacity allocation. The impacts of demand variations and a chokepoint shutdown on transport routes and -capacities are considered. Concepts from competition theory are used to model the effects on LNG pricing. The key finding is that an ice-free NEP is highly relevant for shipping activities of Russian LNG producers. It constitutes a competitive advantage and notably impacts the supply competition and pricing on the Asian LNG market. A discussion of results and a conclusion critically reflect upon the research undertaken, providing an outlook and suggestions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Schach, Michael & Madlener, Reinhard, 2017. "Impacts of an Ice-Free Northeast Passage on LNG Trading: Transport Routes and Optimal Capacity Planning," FCN Working Papers 12/2017, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2017_012
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    Cited by:

    1. Pereira, Guillermo Ivan & Specht, Jan Martin & Silva, Patrícia Pereira & Madlener, Reinhard, 2018. "Technology, business model, and market design adaptation toward smart electricity distribution: Insights for policy making," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 426-440.
    2. Heesen, Florian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2021. "Revisiting heat energy consumption modeling: Household production theory applied to field experimental data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Schach, Michael & Madlener, Reinhard, 2018. "Impacts of an ice-free Northeast Passage on LNG markets and geopolitics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 438-448.
    4. Specht, Jan Martin & Madlener, Reinhard, 2018. "Business Models for Energy Suppliers Aggregating Flexible Distributed Assets and Policy Issues Raised," FCN Working Papers 7/2018, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    LNG; Northeast Passage; Arctic Shipping; Logistics; Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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