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Technical Analysis and Nonlinear Dynamics

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Abstract

In this paper we develop one simple nonlinear model of time series generation that can reproduce some technical behaviours like Elliot Waves and lateral trends. Our model can forecast some technical movements as a consequence of “motion driver” at some time moments. Changing the “amplitude” of emotion stated in the “motion driver” parameter can alter technical figures. Our model is important because, to our knowledge, is the first model that can explain why there are Elliot Waves with Fibonacci ratios precisely. However, future research and development is needed since our model is only the first step.

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  • Salazar Soares, Vasco, 2008. "Technical Analysis and Nonlinear Dynamics," Working Papers 5/2008, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:cigewp:2008_005
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    Keywords

    Technical Analysis; Nonlinear models; Elliot Waves; Fibonacci ratios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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