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Dynamique de l'offre de crédits et activité économique au Maroc

Author

Listed:
  • Slaoui, Yassine

    (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche)

Abstract

Depuis la crise financière de 2008, l'identification des chocs d'offre de crédit est une préoccupation majeure des banques centrales des pays avancés et émergents. Ce travail vise à identifier les chocs d'offre de crédit au Maroc et à déterminer leur impact sur le reste de l'économie, en utilisant un modèle SVAR avec restriction de signes. Notre stratégie d'identification inclut les variables macroéconomiques pour lesquelles les restrictions de signe sont bien identifiées dans la littérature avant d'inclure les variables ayant trait à la sphère financière. L'analyse montre que les chocs d'offre de crédits ont eu un impact prononcé sur la croissance des crédits bancaires de la fin des années 2000. Cette contribution s'est normalisée au cours de la dernière décennie pour se situer à 30%, un niveau proche de celui observé dans les pays de la Zone Euro. La contribution des chocs d'offre de crédit à la croissance du PIB a progressivement augmenté, passant de 2.5% en 2010 à 4% en 2020, indiquant une plus grande financiarisation de l'économie marocaine.' '

Suggested Citation

  • Slaoui, Yassine, 2025. "Dynamique de l'offre de crédits et activité économique au Maroc," Document de travail 2024-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:bkamdt:2024_001
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crédit Bancaire; Cycle financier; politique macroprudentielle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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