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The Middle-Income Transition around the Globe: Characteristics of Graduation and Slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • Vandenberg, Paul

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Poot, Lilibeth

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Miyamoto, Jeffrey

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

The paper investigates the situation of middle-income economies around the world. Since 1965, only 18 economies with a population of more than 3 million and not dependent on oil exports have made the transition to being high income. Many more have not been able to move beyond the middle-income stage. We conduct statistical tests of differences between two groups of economies across a range of growth and development variables. The results suggest that middle-income economies are particularly weak in the following areas: governance, infrastructure, savings and investment, inequality, and quality—but not quantity—of education. The findings are used to suggest whether the People's Republic of China is successfully progressing through the middle-income stage or whether it may get caught in a middle-income trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Vandenberg, Paul & Poot, Lilibeth & Miyamoto, Jeffrey, 2015. "The Middle-Income Transition around the Globe: Characteristics of Graduation and Slowdown," ADBI Working Papers 519, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0519
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abdul Abiad & Margarita Debuque-Gonzales & Andrea Loren Sy, 2018. "The Evolution and Impact of Infrastructure in Middle-Income Countries: Anything Special?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1239-1263, May.
    2. Abiad, Abdul & Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita & Sy, Andrea Loren, 2017. "The Role and Impact of Infrastructure in Middle-Income Countries: Anything Special?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 518, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    middle-income trap; transition; economic development; slowdown;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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