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Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill

Author

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  • Ferrarini, Benno

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International Monetary Fund are used as a benchmark against which to derive a comparative measure of the accuracy of ADO forecasts, or skill. ADO is found to be ‘more skillful’ than WEO in estimating both current-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index (CPI) inflation of Asian economies. WEO may have an edge over ADO when it comes to year-ahead GDP forecasts, while ADO’s inflation forecasts tend to be more accurate. By and large, and notwithstanding much heterogeneity across economies and years, both sets of forecasts display a high degree of inaccuracy during the crisis years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrarini, Benno, 2014. "Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 386, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0386
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    Cited by:

    1. Benno Ferrarini, 2019. "Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016," Working Papers id:12976, eSocialSciences.
    2. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 18-40, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic forecasts; forecast skill; Asian Development Outlook; Asian Development Bank; World Economic Outlook; International Monetary Fund;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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