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Climate Change and Agricultural Interregional Trade Flows in the People's Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Tun

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Liu, Xiaoyun

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Wan, Guanghua

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Xin, Xian

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Zhang, Yongsheng

    (Development Research Center)

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People's Republic of China (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in the agricultural interregional trade pattern. In this paper, we investigate the climate change impacts on this trade pattern, using a computable general equilibrium model of multiple regions and multiple sectors. The results indicate that Northwest, South, Central, and Northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from East, North, and Southwest PRC will decrease. Grain handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Tun & Liu, Xiaoyun & Wan, Guanghua & Xin, Xian & Zhang, Yongsheng, 2011. "Climate Change and Agricultural Interregional Trade Flows in the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 244, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0244
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hearn, David H. & Halbrendt, Catherine K. & Gempesaw, II, Conrado M. & Webb, Shwu-Eng H., 1990. "An Analysis of Transport Improvements in China's Corn Sector: A Hybrid Spatial Equilibrium Approach," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 31(1).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural production; climate change; interregional trade; Peoples Republic of China; regional differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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