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Os Efeitos da Incerteza sobre a Atividade Econômica no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo de Menezes Barboza

    (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social - BNDES)

  • Eduardo Zilberman

    (PUC-Rio)

Abstract

Este trabalho investiga os efeitos da incerteza sobre a atividade econômica no Brasil. Para isso, são construídas diversas proxies que buscam capturar o nível de incerteza vigente na economia brasileira (incerteza doméstica) e em vários de seus principais parceiros comerciais (incerteza externa). Em seguida, são estimados modelos de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) estruturais, cujas funções de resposta ao impulso sugerem efeitos contracionistas significativos da incerteza sobre a atividade, em particular sobre o investimento. Além disso, as estimativas indicam que os efeitos da incerteza doméstica são mais acentuados do que os da incerteza externa. Pode-se afirmar, portanto, que os níveis de incerteza vigentes no Brasil esde as eleiçõoes presidenciais de 2014 representam importante fator por trás da recessão subsequente. Estima-se que caso não houvesse a expansão de incerteza doméstica observada a partir do segundo semestre de 2014, a produção industrial em 2015 teria sido, em média, entre 0,9% e 3,9% maior, dependendo da variável proxy de incerteza utilizada. No caso do IBC-Br, este teria sido entre 0,4% e 1,3% maior. Os resultados encontrados são robustos para diversas alterações no modelo.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo de Menezes Barboza & Eduardo Zilberman, 2017. "Os Efeitos da Incerteza sobre a Atividade Econômica no Brasil," Textos para discussão 658, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:658
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    Cited by:

    1. Corrêa, Wilson Luiz Rotatori & Lopes, Luckas Sabioni, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission, productive activity, and inflation in Brazil: Does uncertainty matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    2. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2021. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Public Consumption," Working Papers REM 2021/0180, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Mirna Geraldine Cevallos-Mina & Rosalba Mercedes Lara-Tambaco & Carlos Humberto Reyes-Vera & Erick Fabián Mosquera-Quiñonez & José Luis Castillo-Gámez, 2024. "The Effects of Oil Price on Energy Production and the Ecuadorian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 38-50, May.
    4. Mauro Sayar Ferreira & Joice Marques Figueiredo, 2024. "The influence of global uncertainty and financial shocks, and sovereign risk shock on the Brazilian term structure of interest rate," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 674, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    5. Cristiane Gea & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Luciano Vereda & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2023. "Pricing uncertainty in the Brazilian stock market: do size and sustainability matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, January.
    6. Raúl Clemente Ulloa-de Souza & Luis Adrián González-Quiñonez & Luis Jheovanny Reyna-Tenorio & Patricia Janella Salgado-Ortiz & Byron Fernando Chere-Quiñónez, 2024. "Renewable Energy Development and Employment in Ecuador’s Rural Sector: An Economic Impact Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 464-479, January.
    7. Schwarz, Lucas Allan Diniz & Dalmácio, Flávia Zóboli, 2021. "The relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate leverage: Evidence from Brazil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    8. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2020. "Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In The United States And Brazil: Svar Approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0150, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Eduardo de Sa Fortes Leitao Rodrigues, 2023. "Uncertainty and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the United States and Brasil: SVAR Approach," Working Papers 2023.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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