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Can a well-fitted equilibrium asset pricing model produce mean reversion?

Author

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  • MArco Antonio Bonomo

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

  • Rene Garcia

Abstract

In recent papers, Cecchetti et al (1990) and Kandel and Stambaugh (1990) showed that negative serial correlation in long horizon returns was consistent with an equilibrium model of asset pricing. In this paper we show that their results rely on misspecified Markov switching models for the endowment process. Once the proper Markov specification is chosen for the endowment process, the model does not produce mean reversion of the magnitude detected in the data. Furthermore, the small amount of mean reversion produced by the model is due only to small sample bias. We also show that this model is unable to predict negative excess returns, contrary to empirical evidence. Copyright 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • MArco Antonio Bonomo & Rene Garcia, 1992. "Can a well-fitted equilibrium asset pricing model produce mean reversion?," Textos para discussão 270, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:270
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
    2. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, Rene, 1996. "Consumption and equilibrium asset pricing: An empirical assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 239-265, September.
    3. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1653-1687, July.
    4. Garcia, Rene & Luger, Richard & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Empirical assessment of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 49-83.
    5. Londono, Juan M. & Regúlez, Marta & Vázquez, Jesús, 2015. "An alternative view of the US price–dividend ratio dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 291-307.
    6. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Yukalov, V.I. & Sornette, D. & Yukalova, E.P., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 206-230, May.
    8. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
    9. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
    10. Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Learning, regime switches, and equilibrium asset pricing dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 979-1006.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Fractional integration and mean reversion in stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 599-609.
    12. Zemcik, Petr, 2001. "Mean reversion in asset returns and time non-separable preferences," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 223-245, July.
    13. Bouaddi, Mohammed & Larocque, Denis & Normandin, Michel, 2015. "Equity premia and state-dependent risks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 393-409.
    14. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, René & Meddahi, Nour & Tédongap, Roméo, 2015. "The long and the short of the risk-return trade-off," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 580-592.
    15. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.

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