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Faraway, So Close: Business Cycle Effect of Long-Run Ambiguity

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Biadetti

    (Università di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Italy)

  • Lorenzo Carbonari

    (DEF and CEIS, Università di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Italy)

  • Filippo Maurici

    (Department of Political Sciences, Università Roma Tre, Italy)

Abstract

This paper explores forward-looking ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) in a model with homogeneous workers and credit-constrained heterogeneous entrepreneurs. Agents are ambiguity-averse, using a worst-case criterion to form expectations about future productivity. We compare our economy with one that lacks uncertainty and find that ambiguity: (i) lowers the productivity threshold for market entry, (ii) reduces the equilibrium interest rate, and (iii) shifts expenditures from entrepreneurs to workers. These results stem from persistent expectation-realization mismatches. While ambiguity does not affect stability, it alters the convergence rate to the steady state and helps explain key macroeconomic comovements.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Biadetti & Lorenzo Carbonari & Filippo Maurici, 2024. "Faraway, So Close: Business Cycle Effect of Long-Run Ambiguity," Working Paper series 24-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:24-20
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ambiguity; collateral constraints; heterogeneous agents; transition dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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