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An Out-of-Sample Test for Nonlinearity in Financial Time Series: An Empirical Application

Author

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  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (Department Of Economics, University Of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

Abstract

This paper employs a local information, nearest neighbour forecasting methodology to test for evidence of nonlinearity in financial time series. Evidence from well-known data generating process are provided and compared with returns from the Athens stock exchange given the in-sample evidence of nonlinear dynamics that has appeared in the literature. Nearest neighbour forecasts fail to produce more accurate forecasts from a simple AR model. This does not substantiate the presence of in-sample nonlinearity in the series.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "An Out-of-Sample Test for Nonlinearity in Financial Time Series: An Empirical Application," Working Paper series 20_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:20_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 237-251, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nearest neighbour; nonlinearity;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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