Scenarios for the Development of CO2 Emissions from Households’ Own Transportation

We assess the development of greenhouse gas emissions from households’ own transport, mainly motoring, up until 2050. The share of electric cars in new registrations has recently started to increase markedly, so the outlook in this respect has clearly changed from a couple of years ago. We make three scenarios for the development of the average emissions of newly registered passenger cars, use historical development in setting the future scrapping rate and average age of the car fleet, and take into account the increase in the obligation to mix biofuels in the 2020s. According to the scenarios, the development of greenhouse gas emissions caused by households’ own transport will support the achievement of Finland’s national carbon neutrality target relatively well providing current development continues. In the baseline scenario, emissions will decrease by a total of 45 per cent between 2008 and 2030. The rate of decline is accelerating all the time as the emissions of newly registered cars decrease and the old car fleet with clearly higher emissions is scrapped. However, the development should be supported by ensuring adequate construction of households’ own and public electric-vehicle-charging infrastructure. In addition, household choices could be influenced, for example, by steepening the CO2 progression of car and vehicle taxes, which would increase household incentives to switch to lower-emission cars. At a minimum, at least inflation adjustments must also be made in the taxation of car ownership and use.