In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprises: The World Export Market Shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine

This brief considers the world export market shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine across over five thousand commodities (the full dataset is provided online at the same web address as this brief). The aim is to provide a tool for gauging where supply chain disruptions might emerge next. Earlier discussion regarding the international trade presence of the three countries has largely revolved around crude oil and natural gas. While they also prominently appear in our analysis, foodstuffs and fertilizers (and the materials thereof) appear to be even more important. With the La Niña weather pattern affecting North American crops in the same time window, a global food catastrophe after the coming autumn, if not sooner, seems imminent. The three countries account for about 70% of sunflower oil exports globally. Their corresponding share for colza and rape oils, popular substitutes for sunflower oil, is over 25%. There are also several narrow and globally minor categories in which the three countries have huge markets shares and in which they might cause disruptions in specific supply chains; examples include specific types of fish and other seafoods. Finland is highly exposed to the consequences of the war (it should be noted, however, that the role of domestic provision in is not considered in this brief). For example, practically all of Finland’s nickel imports come from Russia, as do a significant share of methanol, sawn wood, and crude oil.