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Estimation of Forest Fire-fighting Budgets Using Climate Indexes

Author

Listed:
  • Zhen Xu
  • G. Cornelis van Kooten

Abstract

Given the complexity and relative short length of current predicting system for fire behavior, it is inappropriate to be referred for planning fire-fighting budgets of BC government due to the severe uncertainty of fire behavior across fire seasons. Therefore, a simple weather derived index for predicting fire frequency and burned area is developed in this paper to investigate the potential feasibility to predict fire behavior and fire-fighting expenses for the upcoming fire season using climate indexes. Linear regression models with spatial dummy variables are employed to estimate necessary coefficients that describe relationships across climate events, regional weather conditions, fire behavior and direct fire-fighting expenses in the interior of British Columbia; and Monte Carlo simulation are then used to predict future situations. We conclude that the BC government can use the last-year average solely, or together with January through April climate indexes for planning wildfire budgets for the upcoming fire season.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Xu & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2012. "Estimation of Forest Fire-fighting Budgets Using Climate Indexes," Working Papers 2012-03, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:rep:wpaper:2012-03
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    File URL: http://web.uvic.ca/~repa/publications/REPA%20working%20papers/WorkingPaper2012-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geerte Cotteleer & Tracy Stobbe & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2011. "Bayesian Model Averaging In The Context Of Spatial Hedonic Pricing: An Application To Farmland Values," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 540-557, August.
    2. Olivier Parent & James Lesage, 2005. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models," Post-Print hal-00375489, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fire-fighting Expense; Monte Carlo Simulation; Climate Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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