IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/506.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility \& Contagion in the International Firm Network

Author

Listed:
  • Everett Grant

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Abstract

We use daily equity returns to estimate global inter-firm networks across all major industries from 1981-2016 and test whether the network is robust or fragile, relating multinational firms' overall health with global integration. More connected firms are less likely to be in distress and have higher profit growth and equity returns, but are also more exposed to direct contagion from distressed neighboring firms and network level crises. Our machine learning analysis reveals the centrality of finance in the international firm network and increased globalization over time, with greater potential for crises to spread globally when they do occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Everett Grant, 2018. "The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility \& Contagion in the International Firm Network," 2018 Meeting Papers 506, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2018/paper_506.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    2. Galina Hale & Mr. Tümer Kapan & Ms. Camelia Minoiu, 2016. "Crisis Transmission in the Global Banking Network," IMF Working Papers 2016/091, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    5. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Hale, Galina, 2012. "Bank relationships, business cycles, and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 312-325.
    7. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    8. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    9. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    10. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    11. Minoiu, Camelia & Reyes, Javier A., 2013. "A network analysis of global banking: 1978–2010," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 168-184.
    12. Everett Grant, 2016. "Exposure to international crises: trade vs. financial contagion," Globalization Institute Working Papers 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Hernandez, Leonardo F. & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2001. "What drives contagion: Trade, neighborhood, or financial links?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 203-218.
    14. Gary M. Koop, 2013. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARS," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 177-203, March.
    15. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    16. Bak, Per & Chen, Kan & Scheinkman, Jose & Woodford, Michael, 1993. "Aggregate fluctuations from independent sectoral shocks: self-organized criticality in a model of production and inventory dynamics," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-30, March.
    17. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    18. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    19. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips, 2016. "Text-Based Network Industries and Endogenous Product Differentiation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1423-1465.
    20. repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/13388 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Pietro Bonaldi & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of Funding Costs Spillovers in the EURO-zone with Application to Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 21462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    23. Alexander Chudik & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Big Data Analytics: A New Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 5824, CESifo.
    24. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai Bergman & Anna Milanez & Vladimir Mukharlyamov, 2019. "The Agglomeration of Bankruptcy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(7), pages 2541-2586.
    25. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    26. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    27. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Networks, Shocks, and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 20931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    29. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    30. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    31. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2007. "Global monitoring with the BIS international banking statistics," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 176-204, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    33. Chudik, Alexander & Grossman, Valerie & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 349-365.
    34. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2016. "Trans-Atlantic Equity Volatility Connectedness: U.S. and European Financial Institutions, 2004–2014," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 81-127.
    35. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    36. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    37. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    38. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    39. Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Foti, Nick & Rockmore, Daniel, 2015. "Overlapping portfolios, contagion, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 50-63.
    40. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    41. Fabio Caccioli & Thomas A. Catanach & J. Doyne Farmer, 2012. "Heterogeneity, Correlations And Financial Contagion," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-15.
    42. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hale, Galina & Lopez, Jose A., 2019. "Monitoring banking system connectedness with big data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 203-220.
    2. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 360, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2021. "The double‐edged sword of global integration: Robustness, fragility, and contagion in the international firm network," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 760-783, September.
    2. Yun, Tae-Sub & Jeong, Deokjong & Park, Sunyoung, 2019. "“Too central to fail” systemic risk measure using PageRank algorithm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 251-272.
    3. Baruník, Jozef & Ellington, Michael, 2024. "Persistence in financial connectedness and systemic risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 393-407.
    4. Covi, Giovanni & Gorpe, Mehmet Ziya & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Christian Gross & Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 61-81, January.
    6. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 360, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Aikman, David & Beale, Daniel & Brinley-Codd, Adam & Covi, Giovanni & Hüser, Anne‑Caroline & Lepore, Caterina, 2023. "Macroprudential stress‑test models: a survey," Bank of England working papers 1037, Bank of England.
    8. Dungey, Mardi & Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Crisis transmission: Visualizing vulnerability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Mrs. Jana Bricco & Ms. TengTeng Xu, 2019. "Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework," IMF Working Papers 2019/220, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 97-115.
    11. Mardi Dungey & John Harvey & Pierre Siklos & Vladimir Volkov, 2017. "Signed spillover effects building on historical decompositions," CAMA Working Papers 2017-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "Risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Wiersema, Garbrand & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M. & Wetzer, Thom & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Scenario-free analysis of financial stability with interacting contagion channels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Uluceviz, Erhan & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2021. "Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Sullivan HUE & Yannick LUCOTTE & Sessi TOKPAVI, 2018. "Measuring Network Systemic Risk Contributions: A Leave-one-out Approach," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2608, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    16. Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2024. "Sectoral slowdowns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from transmission probabilities and economic linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 22-40, January.
    17. Hué, Sullivan & Lucotte, Yannick & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2019. "Measuring network systemic risk contributions: A leave-one-out approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 86-114.
    18. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2022. "Interdependence and portfolio optimisation of bank equity returns from developed and emerging Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 678-696, January.
    19. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Ron P. McIver & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Network Interdependence and Optimization of Bank Portfolios from Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 613-647, December.
    20. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.