IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed017/965.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Term Structure of Risk on Macrofinance Models

Author

Listed:
  • Irina Zviadadze

    (Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

I propose a model-based approach to characterize the term structures of risk in cash flows and asset prices. I relax cross-equation restrictions in structural models and estimate the implied dynamics of macro fundamentals and asset prices. I use shock elasticities to characterize how risk propagates in asset prices. To account for time variation in the risk premium, I extend the theory of dynamic value decomposition (Hansen, 2012) to nonnormal shocks. I find that the leading models of time-varying risk premium fall short to account for the shape and level of the term structure of risk in equity returns and cash flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Risk on Macrofinance Models," 2017 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:965
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2017/paper_965.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
    2. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
    3. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    4. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
    5. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Le, Anh & Rodriguez, Marius, 2017. "The price of variance risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 225-250.
    6. Anh Le & Kenneth J. Singleton & Qiang Dai, 2010. "Discrete-Time Affine-super-ℚ Term Structure Models with Generalized Market Prices of Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 2184-2227.
    7. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    8. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
    9. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
    10. Lars Peter Hansen, 2012. "Dynamic Valuation Decomposition Within Stochastic Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 911-967, May.
    11. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
      • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    13. Joann Jasiak & Christian Gourieroux, 2006. "Autoregressive gamma processes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 129-152.
    14. Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Irina Zviadadze, 2021. "Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns [Stock returns and volatility: Pricing the short-run and long-run components of market risk]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 6032-6086.
    2. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross Section of Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1529-1566, August.
    4. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
    5. Pier dup Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2015. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    7. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
    8. Peter Van Tassel & Erik Vogt, 2016. "Global variance term premia and intermediary risk appetite," Staff Reports 789, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    10. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    11. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
    12. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    13. Bardgett, Chris & Gourier, Elise & Leippold, Markus, 2019. "Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 593-618.
    14. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
    15. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 51-99, February.
    16. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2016. "The Long Bond, Long Forward Measure and Long-Term Factorization in Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Papers 1610.00818, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    17. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Vrugt, Evert B., 2018. "Carry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 197-225.
      • Moskowitz, Tobias J & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert B., 2013. "Carry," CEPR Discussion Papers 9771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan, 2021. "Hedging macroeconomic and financial uncertainty and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 23-45.
    19. Lars A. Lochstoer & Tyler Muir, 2022. "Volatility Expectations and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1055-1096, April.
    20. Marianne Andries & Thomas M. Eisenbach & R. Jay Kahn & Martin C. Schmalz, 2015. "The term structure of the price of variance risk," Staff Reports 736, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed017:965. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.