IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed010/84.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Currency Portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Kumhof

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The paper develops a theory that endogenizes the currency composition of international nominal bond portfolios in general equilibrium. It emphasizes the critical roles of government debt and of government policies, and thereby reconnects to the partial equilibrium portfolio balance literature of the 1980s. Consistent with recent empirical findings, optimal private sector foreign currency positions are found to be small and possibly negative, with their size decreasing in exchange rate volatility. Optimal private sector domestic currency positions are large and increasing in domestic interest rates. Uncovered interest parity is replaced by a relationship that also depends on outstanding bond stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kumhof, 2010. "International Currency Portfolios," 2010 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:84
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2010/paper_84.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2009. "The International Diversification Puzzle When Goods Prices Are Sticky: It's Really about Exchange-Rate Hedging, Not Equity Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 155-188, July.
    2. Sutherland, Alan & Devereux, Michael B, 2006. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5966, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mr. Akito Matsumoto & Mr. Charles Engel, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 2005/165, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    6. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    8. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    9. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    10. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Robert Kollmann & Philippe Martin, 2009. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand, and Redistributive Shocks," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 231-263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    12. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
    13. Daniel, Betty C, 2001. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 969-988, November.
    14. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    15. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 491-505, November.
    16. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    17. Grinols, Earl L. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1994. "Exchange rate determination and asset prices in a stochastic small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 75-97, February.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    19. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Equilibrium Valuation of Foreign Exchange Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 799-826, June.
    20. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    21. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    22. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    23. Zapatero, Fernando, 1995. "Equilibrium asset prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 787-811, May.
    24. Martin Eichenbaum & Craig Burnside & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 333-338, May.
    25. Dupor, Bill, 2000. "Exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 613-630, June.
    26. Backus, David K. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1989. "On the denomination of government debt : A critique of the portfolio balance approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 359-376, May.
    27. Stulz, Rene M, 1984. "Currency Preferences, Purchasing Power Risks, and the Determination of Exchange Rates in an Optimizing Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 302-316, August.
    28. Click, Reid W, 1998. "Seigniorage in a Cross-Section of Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 154-171, May.
    29. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    30. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2002. "International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 907-928, May.
    31. Stulz, Rene M, 1987. "An Equilibrium Model of Exchange Rate Determination and Asset Pricing with Nontraded Goods and Imperfect Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1024-1040, October.
    32. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "The capitalization of income streams and the effects of open-market policy under fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 87-98.
    34. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "Fiscal Solvency and Price Level Determination in a Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 12, pages 343-362, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    35. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
    36. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
    37. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. William G. Gale & Peter R. Orszag, 2004. "Budget Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 101-210.
    39. Aizenman, Joshua, 1989. "Country Risk, Incomplete Information and Taxes on International Borrowing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 147-161, March.
    40. Henderson, Dale W. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1982. "Negative net foreign asset positions and stability in a world portfolio balance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 85-104, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kumhof, Michael, 2018. "On the theory of international currency portfolios," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 376-396.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumhof, Michael, 2010. "On the theory of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1403-1420, August.
    2. Stijn van Nieuwerburgh & Michael Kumhof, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model," 2005 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Kumhof, Michael, 2018. "On the theory of international currency portfolios," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 376-396.
    4. Suleyman Basak & Michael Gallmeyer, 1999. "Currency Prices, the Nominal Exchange Rate, and Security Prices in a Two‐Country Dynamic Monetary Equilibrium," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, January.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    6. Evans, Lynne & Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "FOREX risk premia and policy uncertainty: a recursive utility analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    8. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "International Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 16630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rankin, Neil, 1998. "Nominal rigidity and monetary uncertainty in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 679-702, May.
    10. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    11. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2010. "An asset-pricing view of external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 144-156, January.
    12. Luo, Robin & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2010. "Real exchange rates, asset prices and terms of trade: A theoretical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 143-151, January.
    13. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    14. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    15. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 100-112, January.
    16. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
    17. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    18. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    19. Mihailov, Alexander, 2003. "Effects of the Exchange-Rate Regime on Trade under Monetary Uncertainty: The Role of Price Setting," Economics Discussion Papers 8865, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    20. Mr. Ermal Hitaj & Yasin Kursat Onder, 2013. "Fiscal Discipline in WAEMU: Rules, Institutions, and Markets," IMF Working Papers 2013/216, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed010:84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.