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The Term Structure of Oil Prices, Bond Prices, and Monetary Policy

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  • Bryan Routledge

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

We focus on oil prices as the source of inflation mis-measurement for two reasons. First, oil (and energy) prices are significant real shocks to the economy that are often manifest in large price changes (Hamilton 1983, 1996). Second, and more directly relevant to our paper, oil prices are actively traded in futures markets (with liquid trading even at the five and ten year horizon). This allows us to focus on the joint dynamics of bond prices in the term structure as well as the term structure of oil futures prices. The results help explain the puzzling feature that risk premium in oil futures markets are hard to detect (Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2005), Erb and Harvey (2005), Casassus, Collin-Dufresne, and Routledge (2007)) as well as shed light on the reaction of bond prices to oil-price shocks. The paper also provides a different perspective on other empirical features for the term-structure of oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Routledge, 2008. "The Term Structure of Oil Prices, Bond Prices, and Monetary Policy," 2008 Meeting Papers 1019, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed008:1019
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