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Cointegration and Asset Allocation: A New Fund Strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Alexander

    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

  • Ian Giblin

    (Pennoyer Capital Management - New York)

  • Wayne Weddington III

    (Pennoyer Capital Management - New York)

Abstract

Many recent papers have documented the existence of periodicities in returns, return volatility, bid-ask spreads and trading volume, in both equity and foreign exchange markets. In this paper, we propose and employ a new test for detecting subtle periodicities in financial markets based on a signal coherence function. The technique is applied to a set of seven half-hourly exchange rate series. Overall, we find the signal coherence to be maximal at the 8 hour and 12 hour frequencies. Retaining only the most coherent frequencies for each series, we implement a trading rule based on these observed periodicities. Our results demonstrate in all cases except one that, in gross terms, the rules are able to generate returns considerably greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy. We conjecture that this methodology could constitute an important tool for market microstructure researchers, which will enable them to better detect, quantify and rank the various periodic components in financial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Alexander & Ian Giblin & Wayne Weddington III, 2001. "Cointegration and Asset Allocation: A New Fund Strategy," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2001-03
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    File URL: http://www.icmacentre.ac.uk/pdf/discussion/DP2001-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1993. "The Comovement of Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1073-1104.
    2. Alexander, CO & A Johnson, 1992. "Are foreign exchange markets really efficient?," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/92, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Alexander, C. O. & Johnson, A., 1992. "Are foreign exchange markets really efficient?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 449-453, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali K k olak & Figen B y kak n & Necla Ilter Kucukcolak, 2019. "Cointegration of Equity and Gold Markets: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 32-40.
    2. Mayordomo, Sergio, 2009. "Are There Arbitrage Opportunities in Credit Derivatives Markets? A New Test and an Application to the Case of CDS and ASPs," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb096303, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge Fund; Cointegration; Equity; Market Neutral;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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