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The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets

Author

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  • Menkhoff, Lukas

    (HU Berlin and DIW Berlin)

  • Rieth, Malte

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Stöhr, Tobias

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Abstract

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Applying this approach to the most important, freely floating currencies, we find that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact persists for months. We show for Japan and the US that interest rates tend to fall in response to sales of the domestic currency, whereas stock prices of large (exporting) firms increase after devaluation of the domestic currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Menkhoff, Lukas & Rieth, Malte & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 205, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:205
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2021. "Regional How Powerful is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Working papers 834, Banque de France.
    2. Marcel Fratzscher & Tobias Heidland & Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 852-884, December.
    3. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Currency manipulation and currency wars: Analyzing the dynamics of competitive central bank interventions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2023. "How Powerful Is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1307-1319, August.
    5. Alain Naef, 2020. "Blowing against the Wind? A Narrative Approach to Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working Papers 0188, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    6. Arango-Lozano, Lucía & Menkhoff, Lukas & Rodríguez-Novoa, Daniela & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2024. "The effectiveness of FX interventions: A meta-analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. FATUM, Rasmus & YAMAMOTO, Yohei & CHEN, Binwei, 2023. "The Trend Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-132, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Andrew Filardo & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Thomas McGregor, 2022. "Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention," IMF Working Papers 2022/158, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Freddy A. Pinzón-Puerto & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? A Foreign Exchange Intervention Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange intervention; structural VAR; exchange rates; interest rates; stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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