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South Africas revenue performance during COVID and beyond The impact of commodity prices

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  • Chloe Allison
  • Nkhetheni Nesengani
  • Nic Spearman

Abstract

Revenue rebounded strongly in the 2021/22 fiscal year following a sharp decline in 2020/21. This recovery was supported by a strong rally in global commodity prices. We assess the performance of the primary tax revenue streams over the 2020/21 and 2021/22 fiscal period and model the impact of the raised commodity prices. We estimate that 30% of the increase in gross revenue during the 2-year period is attributable to the growth in commodity prices. Using our model estimates together with official SARB projections for GDP and commodity prices we projected a revenue surplus of R92 billion compared to National Treasurys Budget Review 2022 estimate of R1,588 billion for 2022/23. The budget deficit falls to 4.3% compared to National Treasurys estimate of 6.0%, however, significant expenditure risks remain.

Suggested Citation

  • Chloe Allison & Nkhetheni Nesengani & Nic Spearman, 2023. "South Africas revenue performance during COVID and beyond The impact of commodity prices," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 11044, South African Reserve Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbz:oboens:11044
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    File URL: https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/occasional-bulletin-of-economic-notes/2023/south-africas-revenue-performance-during-covid-and-beyond-the-impact-of-commodity-prices-june-2023.pdf
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