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A Leading Indicator for Employment using Big Data

Author

Listed:
  • Castellares, Renzo
  • Cornejo, Gerson

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

This paper uses job ad information from Peru’s three main employment search websites to estimate an employment leading indicator. The information from more than 25 thousand job ads per day, posted by more than 15 thousand firms, allows us to classify ads by industry and predict the evolution of employment in the commerce, manufacturing, and services sectors. The results show that this indicator has better properties for predicting the level of employment relative to alternative models based on the mean quadratic error criterion.

Suggested Citation

  • Castellares, Renzo & Cornejo, Gerson, 2020. "A Leading Indicator for Employment using Big Data," Working Papers 2020-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2020-009
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    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2020/documento-de-trabajo-009-2020.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Formal Employment; Job Ads; Leading Indicator; Forecast.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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