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Una exploración de la estabilidad de la Curva de Phillips en el Perú

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  • Rojas, Youel

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

Se explora empíricamente si la dinámica de la inflación y sus determinantes ha cambiado en el tiempo. En particular, se presta atención a la pendiente de la Curva de Phillips para extraer evidencia de si un aplanamiento de esta curva puede explicar la aparente menor sincronización entre inflación y la medida de presiones de demanda después del 2014, y por tanto una ausencia de desinflación. Con base a estimaciones de una curva de Phillips no lineal, se encuentra poca evidencia de un cambio en la pendiente de la curva de Phillips. El periodo de ausencia de desinflación puede explicarse por choques a las expectativas de inflación junto a un incremento en su importancia relativa, y a un incremento temporal de la inercia en la inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Rojas, Youel, 2020. "Una exploración de la estabilidad de la Curva de Phillips en el Perú," Working Papers 2020-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2020-003
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    Keywords

    Inflación; brecha del producto; parámetros cambiantes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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