IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rbp/wpaper/2008-003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

¿Can Peru be a New Economic Miracle?

Author

Listed:
  • Raymundo Chirinos

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

This paper estimates the probability that Peru becomes a new economic miracle. However, since economic theory does not define what exactly an economic miracle is, we must develop a definition based on the top quintile of the distribution of maximum 10-, 15- and 20-year average rates of growth over the period 1961-2002. By using this criterion, we identify 19 “miracle” economies, which will be compared with a similar number of “average” and “disaster” economies. Through a ordered choice model based on a set of initial conditions we determine the probability that Peru lies in the first group over the next 10, 15 and 20 years. The probability that Peru becomes a miracle in the next 10 years is very high; however, the evidence is less conclusive for longer periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymundo Chirinos, 2008. "¿Can Peru be a New Economic Miracle?," Working Papers 2008-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2008-003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2008/Documento-Trabajo-03-2008.pdf
    File Function: Application/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    milagro económico; condiciones iniciales; modelo de elección ordenada;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2008-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research Unit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bcrgvpe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.