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A Decade of Australian Banking Risk: Evidence from Share Prices

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  • Marianne Gizycki

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Mark Levonian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

The stability of the banking sector has long been a matter of concern for public policy. The likelihood of bank failure depends on two factors: (i) the variability of bank income (which primarily reflects the variability of the rate of return on bank assets), and (ii) the capacity of a bank to absorb losses in the short run (which depends on bank capital). Accounting measures of the volatility of the rate of return on bank assets and bank capital ratios may not reflect the appropriate economic concepts. In this paper, we use share price data to calculate the economic values of Australian bank asset volatilities, capital ratios and the potential public sector liability which might arise as a result of claims by depositors of a failed bank. The public sector liability is found to be extremely small. We find that the estimated capital ratio for the Australian banking sector has risen over the past decade, while there has been no noticeable increase in the riskiness of banks. A preliminary investigation of the relation between asset volatility and bank capital is conducted which suggests that riskier banks do tend to maintain higher capital ratios, and that there is a positive relation between the two variables across time.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Gizycki & Mark Levonian, 1993. "A Decade of Australian Banking Risk: Evidence from Share Prices," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9302, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Gizycki & Brenton Goldsworthy, 1999. "Australian Banking Risk: The Stock Market’s Assessment and the Relationship Between Capital and Asset Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Dennis, Steven A. & Sim, Ah Boon, 1996. "An evaluation of the deposit insurance subsidisation of Australian banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 421-435, December.
    3. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemically important banks: an analysis for the European banking system," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 73-89, April.
    4. Loveland, Robert, 2016. "How prompt was regulatory corrective action during the financial crisis?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-36.
    5. Philip Lowe & Thomas Rohling, 1993. "Agency Costs, Balance Sheets and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9311, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Guseon Ji & Daniel Sungyeon Kim & Kwangwon Ahn, 2019. "Financial Structure and Systemic Risk of Banks: Evidence from Chinese Reform," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Sharpe, Ian G. & Tuzun, Tayfun, 1997. "The underinvestment hypothesis and off-balance sheet direct credit substitutes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 325-344, July.
    8. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.

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