IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qsh/wpaper/164481.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sources of Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Sunghyun Henry Kim
  • M. Ayhan Kose

Abstract

We analyze the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in the emerging countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model economy captures some important structural characteristics of the MENA countries and can replicate the main properties of their business cycles. The results suggest that a substantial fraction of cyclical fluctuations in the MENA countries is explained by terms of trade shocks, which account for more than 60 percent of the variation in aggregate output. They also explain the bulk of cyclical fluctuations in aggregate consumption. Domestic productivity shocks explain close to 40 percent of business cycle variation in aggregate output. Government spending shocks and world interest shocks are also important in accounting for the volatility of business cycles in certain macroeconomic variables, but their overall effect on the dynamics of aggregate output appears to be relatively small.

Suggested Citation

  • Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose, "undated". "Sources of Fluctuations," Working Paper 164481, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:164481
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/hideakihirata/node/164481
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alandejani, Maha & Kutan, Ali M. & Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Do Islamic banks fail more than conventional banks?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 135-155.
    2. Le, Ha, 2014. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Vietnam: A comparison with Indonesia and Philippines," MPRA Paper 57010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2014.
    3. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    5. Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Do International Capital Flows Worsen Macroeconomic Volatility in Transition Economies?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13.
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2019. "Islamic and conventional equity markets: Two sides of the same coin, or not?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-205.
    7. Jawadi, Fredj & Jawadi, Nabila & Idi Cheffou, Abdoukarim, 2019. "A statistical analysis of uncertainty for conventional and ethical stock indexes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 9-17.
    8. Ftiti, Zied & Hadhri, Sinda, 2019. "Can economic policy uncertainty, oil prices, and investor sentiment predict Islamic stock returns? A multi-scale perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-55.
    9. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "Stock market reactions to upside and downside volatility of Bitcoin: A quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Financial tail risks in conventional and Islamic stock markets: A comparative analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 60-82.
    11. Wang, Xinyu & Luo, Yi & Wang, Zhuqing & Xu, Yan & Wu, Congxin, 2021. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on volatility of China’s financial stocks: An empirical analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Kutan, Ali M. & Yaya, Mehmet E., 2017. "Financial integration in small Islands: The case of Cyprus," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 201-219.
    13. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Sasongko, Aryo, 2021. "US government shutdowns and Indonesian stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Zaghum Umar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Román Ferrer & Francisco Jareño, 2018. "Does Shariah compliance make interest rate sensitivity of Islamic equities lower? An industry level analysis under different market states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4500-4521, September.
    18. Tang, Wenjin & Ding, Saijie & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Audi, Marc & Sadiq, Azhar & Ali, Amjad, 2021. "Performance Evaluation of Islamic and Non-Islamic Equity and Bonds Indices: Evidence from selected Emerging and Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 109866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jung Park, Yuen & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "The impacts of overseas market shocks on the CDS-option basis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 622-636.
    21. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bagzibagli, Kemal, 2010. "Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 44351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Haddad, Hedi Ben & Mezghani, Imed & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed, 2020. "Common shocks, common transmission mechanisms and time-varying connectedness among Dow Jones Islamic stock market indices and global risk factors," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    23. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:164481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Brandon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrssus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.