IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qld/uq2004/321.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Feasible Limits For External Deficits And Debt

Author

Abstract

Rising current account deficits and foreign debt levels remain a source of concern for international financial markets and policymakers. Yet, exactly what constitutes an "excessive" external deficit or liability position for an economy at any time has not been adequately defined. This paper addresses this question by proposing measures of the maximum feasible limits of current account deficits and foreign debt levels based on international macroeconomic relationships. It proposes that investment opportunities essentially define the limit of feasibility for current account deficits, whereas the capital to output ratio sets the feasible foreign debt to GDP limit. Benchmark estimates of these limits are presented for advanced economies that have borrowed heavily since 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Anthony J. Makin, 2003. "Feasible Limits For External Deficits And Debt," Discussion Papers Series 321, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economics.uq.edu.au//files/44332/321.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Razin, A., 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    3. Anthony J. Makin, 2004. "The Current Account, Fiscal Policy, and Medium‐Run Income Determination," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 309-317, July.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    6. Stanley Fischer, 2003. "Financial crises and reform of the international financial system," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(1), pages 1-37, March.
    7. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    8. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    9. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
    10. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(2), pages 305-333, May.
    11. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Fiscal Policies and the World Economy; An Intertemporal Approach (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987)," MPRA Paper 20438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sidney S. Alexander, 1952. "Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(2), pages 263-278, April.
    13. Catherine L. Mann, 1999. "Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 47, April.
    14. Bosch, Darrell, 2002. "Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Income Risk Management in Agriculture: OECD, Paris, France, December 2000, 152 pp., US$ 42.00, Softcover, ISBN 92-64-18534-8," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 88-90, May.
    15. Caroline L. Freund, 2000. "Current account adjustment in industrialized countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 692, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. A. J. Makin, 2003. "Global Finance and the Macroeconomy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50403-5, October.
    17. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa02-2.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Makin & Wei Zhang & Grant Scobie, 2009. "The contribution of foreign borrowing to the New Zealand economy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 263-278.
    2. Miles Workman, 2015. "Estimating the Cyclically- and Absorption-adjusted Fiscal Balance for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/09, New Zealand Treasury.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    2. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2011. "Have domestic or foreign factors driven European external imbalances?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 537-546, April.
    3. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Current Account Reversals In Selected Transition Countries," International Finance 0510021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    5. Guy Debelle & Gabriele Galati, 2007. "Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 989-1013, November.
    6. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    7. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2012. "The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 105-117.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    9. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2013. "Has international borrowing or lending driven Australia's net capital inflow?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 134-143.
    10. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    11. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
    12. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
    13. Anthony Makin & Wei Zhang & Grant Scobie, 2009. "The contribution of foreign borrowing to the New Zealand economy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 263-278.
    14. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    15. César Calderón & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén, 2001. "International Portfolio Diversification: The Role of Risk and Return," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 94, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Sebastián Edwards, 2008. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 2, pages 025-083, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange-Rate Policies in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities From Latin America and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 533-563, September.
    18. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2022. "Do expenditure shocks affect GDP or trade balances in deficit-prone advanced economies?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 930-937.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SOE IT (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decuqau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.