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Reverse Bayesianism: A Generalization

Author

Listed:
  • Edi Karni

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Quitze Valenzuela-Stookey

    (Northwestern University)

  • Marie-Louise Vierø

    (Queen's University)

Abstract

This paper studies an environment in which a decision maker choosing between acts may initially be unaware of certain consequences. We follow the approach of Karni and Viero (2013) to modeling increasing awareness, which allows for the decision maker's state space to expand as she becomes aware of new possible consequences. We generalize the main result in Karni and Viero (2013) by allowing the discovery of new consequences to nullify some states that were non-null before the discovery. We also provide alternative assumptions which strengthen the predictions of the belief updating model.

Suggested Citation

  • Edi Karni & Quitze Valenzuela-Stookey & Marie-Louise Vierø, 2018. "Reverse Bayesianism: A Generalization," Working Paper 1400, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1400
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    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/wpaper/qed_wp_1400.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2021. "An intertemporal model of growing awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    2. Chakravarty, Surajeet & Kelsey, David & Teitelbaum, Joshua C., 2022. "Reverse Bayesianism and act independence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Shabnam Mousavi & Shyam Sunder, 2019. "Physical Laws and Human Behavior: A Three-Tier Framework," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2173, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Piermont, Evan, 2021. "Unforeseen evidence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    falsification; Growing awareness; reverse Bayesianism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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