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House Hunting High and Low: Constructing a Housing Search Index for Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Frederico Godinho
  • Katja Neugebauer

Abstract

In this paper, we build a Housing Search Index (HSI) based on Google searches made within Portugal that are related to the house-buying process. We find that this index performs well in predicting house price changes in the short-term, especially in comparison to other predictors usually applied in this literature. The predictive model also suggests that supply indicators are not as strong predictors as the HSI, and that incorporating Google search-based foreign demand HSIs to the model adds significant predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Godinho & Katja Neugebauer, 2025. "House Hunting High and Low: Constructing a Housing Search Index for Portugal," Working Papers w202507, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202507
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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2025-04/WP202507.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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