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Unraveling Financial Fragility of Global Markets Using Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Vasilios Plakandaras

    (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Komotini, Greece)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Qiang Ji

    (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China)

Abstract

The study investigates systemic financial risk in global markets, attributing it to geopolitical instability, climate risks, and economic uncertainties. Utilizing a state-of-the-art machine learning heterogeneous panel regression framework capable of capturing cross-sectional dependencies and nonlinear patterns, we examine financial stress across multiple economies, including China, the U.S., the U.K., and ten EU nations. Through extensive out-of-sample rolling window analysis, we show that while geopolitical uncertainty enhances short-term predictions, long-term risk forecasting is better achieved using financial and economic data. The study underscores the limitations of conventional regression models in capturing financial risk dynamics and suggests that machine learning-based panel regressions provide a more nuanced and accurate forecasting tool. The findings bear significant policy implications, highlighting the necessity for regulatory bodies to reassess risk frameworks and the role of climate-related disclosures in financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2025. "Unraveling Financial Fragility of Global Markets Using Machine Learning," Working Papers 202511, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202511
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic financial risk; machine learning; forecasting; climate risk; geopolitical risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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