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The Effects of Oil Shocks on Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from a Large Panel Dataset of US States

Author

Listed:
  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Xin Sheng

    (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, CM1 1SQ, United Kingdom)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty using a large panel dataset of 50 US states. We examine both linear and nonlinear impulse responses of uncertainty to oil shocks by utilising the local projection method. We show that uncertainty is affected by both supply- and demand-side oil shocks and the effects of oil shocks on uncertainty are contingent on the states of oil dependence. Our results have important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng, 2020. "The Effects of Oil Shocks on Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from a Large Panel Dataset of US States," Working Papers 202048, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202048
    as

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Yang & Guo, SongLin & Chang, XiaoChen, 2022. "Oil prices volatility and economic performance during COVID-19 and financial crises of 2007–2008," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Constantin Anghelache & Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Stefan Virgil Iacob, 2022. "Energy Resources Decrease And It Is Necessary To Conserve And Save Them," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 158-164, August.
    4. Mahmoud Ayoub & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Financial ambiguity and oil prices," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil shocks; macroeconomic uncertainty; local projections; impulse response functions; oil dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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